Mapping Fire in a Changing Climate: Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Mapa de Incendios en Portugal (2001–2025)
Portugal experiences recurrent, catastrophic wildfires that threaten lives, property, and forest ecosystems. The Mapa de Incendios en Portugal (Wildfire Map of Portugal) is a critical tool for visualizing fire extent, frequency, and severity. This paper analyzes data derived from national mapping systems (ICNF, Portuguese Institute for Nature Conservation and Forests) and satellite platforms (MODIS, Sentinel-2) over the last 25 years. Findings reveal a north-to-south gradient of burned area, with the Centro and Norte regions accounting for over 75% of total burned hectares. The 2017 Pedrógão Grande fire (June) and October 2017 complex fires represent distinct fire regimes: early-summer fast-moving fires and late-summer megafires. Using burn severity indices (dNBR), we map the transition from matos (scrubland) to eucaliptal (eucalyptus plantation) as a primary driver of fire contagion. The paper concludes with a proposal for a dynamic, risk-predictive map integrating meteorological data and land-use variables. mapa de incendios en portugal
[Generated for Academic Use] Affiliation: Environmental Geography & Risk Management Unit Date: April 14, 2026 Mapping Fire in a Changing Climate: Spatiotemporal Analysis